{"id":2118,"date":"2019-07-13T15:53:00","date_gmt":"2019-07-13T15:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quicktransportsolutions.com\/blog\/?p=2118"},"modified":"2019-07-13T15:53:02","modified_gmt":"2019-07-13T15:53:02","slug":"mixed-signals-create-a-murky-picture-for-the-economy-and-transportation-sector","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quicktransportsolutions.com\/blog\/mixed-signals-create-a-murky-picture-for-the-economy-and-transportation-sector\/","title":{"rendered":"Mixed Signals Create a Murky Picture for the Economy and Transportation Sector"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to transportation research organization ACT Research, there may be an economic downturn during 2020. Still, many pundits were claiming there would be a downturn in 2019, and that is now looking increasingly less likely. While the trucking industry has had a fantastic run over the past 10 years, could I be that both he industry and the economy has reached its peak?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">                                                      <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Broad economic indicators and trend lines specific to the\ntrucking industry seem to point in this direction. Still, while ACT Research\nand other organizations do not predict a full-blown recession, it still cannot\nbe ruled out entirely, especially with the trade war heating up and\ngeopolitical hot spots flaring. According to ACT Research, there is currently a\none-in-three chance a recession will happen at some point in 2020. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Furthermore, ACT Research fleet survey numbers showed that\napproximately 60 fleets crossed into negative territory in November of 2018,\nwhich represents the first time those numbers have reached that level since\nJuly of 2016. There is also some level of regional softness, which could be\nimpacting the numbers. With tariffs negatively impacting agricultural exports\nin the Midwest, headwinds remain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Spot total rates for freight have also slumped, averaging\n$1.85 per-mile in March, according to DAT Solutions, which is the lowest\nreading since 2017. The truckload freight environment has certainly been weaker\nthis year from the January to mid-March period. Large, public trucking\ncompanies are also seeing lower shares year-over-year. But does all this data\nportend something worse to come? Frankly, there is a lot of confusion in the\nnumbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Truck Orders Blink<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One signal could be truck orders in March, which were the\nlowest for that month since 2010 and dropped a whopping 67% over March 2018\nnumbers, according to FTR. And while the numbers are not yet final, ACT\nResearch projects the final number will be just under 16,000 truck orders for\nthe month. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The problem is this data signals the fourth consecutive\nmonth of orders coming in below the current rate of build. While demand is far\nlower than recent trend lines, slowing order intake makes current market\nconditions obvious. Still, despite the dip in orders, FTR reports that demand\nis still strong. The confusing numbers are a result of a lower number of build\nslots for 2019, which is squeezing availability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">OEM production slots were already limited in 2018 due to\nsupplier constraints, as we have reported on before. And now that the situation\nhas leveled out, fleets are rushing to place orders but have limited options\navailable to them. And while backlogs are declining, fleets are still\nstruggling to put more trucks in service in a hyper-competitive freight market.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Cass Index has pointed to big declines in international\nairfreight volumes in Asia, a reduction in railroad volumes and drops in auto\nmanufacturing and building material deliveries. Truck drivers are also\nbeginning to notice a drop in miles driven and overall per-mile pay from the\nsame period a year before. It is widely agreed that the trucking sector\nexperienced some softening in 2018. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This data is reinforced by the Cass Freight Index Report, which was released in March. It is important to note that the Cass Freight Index was one of the first freight flow indicators to turn positive way back in October of 2016 and signal a rapid heating up of the U.S. economy. Now, with the Cass Freight Shipment Index showing negative year-over-year growth, this could show either a pause in economic expansion or the beginning of an actual contraction. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">                                                      <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fortunately, levels of economic confidence are still quite\nstrong, with the American consumer feeling good about the direction the economy\nis going in. Positive economic indicators include a continued strong market,\nhistorically low unemployment, high corporate profits and a strong level of\nloan availability and overall business and personal credit. While economic and\npolitical worries remain, such as the ongoing trade negotiations, rising\ninterest rates, and a slowdown in manufacturing, there are still more positive\nindicators than negative. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Shifting Indicators<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Slowing truck orders and a cooling off the overall freight\nenvironment is putting a pinch on fleets\u2019 pricing power in the overall\nmarketplace. Put together, ACT Research believes all of these could portend a\npotential downturn in the coming 12 \u2013 18-month business cycle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Production could see further declines due to new regulations\nput into effect by the California Air Resource Board, which specifically target\nheavy-duty motor vehicles. OEMs should now be preparing to file new\ncertifications and update their warranty reporting standards, for both tractors\nand trailers, beginning in 2020. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The trailer market tea leaves are also difficult to read. It\nis important to consider that trailer orders peaked at the end of 2018 and have\nbeen on the decline since. A huge industry backlog has created a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.trailer-bodybuilders.com\/trailer-output\/act-research-pegs-march-trailer-orders-15600-units\">softer\nmarketplace for new trailers<\/a>. Even so, trailer production is still at\nnear-record highs. Will this level of production be sustainable in the long\nterm? Likely not. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, ACT Research expects that OEMs will build around\n331,000 units in 2019, with 2020 production levels falling to around 275,000\nunits. Still, ACT Research and FTR are not the only outfits making bold\npredictions for the trucking industry. The ATA\u2019s Freight Forecast takes an even\nlonger look at the state of the industry, and it looks good as we expand the\nview out to the next decade. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>ATA 10-Year Freight\nForecast Looks Rosy<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new Freight Forecast released by the ATA has taken a\nclose look at the transportation sector and made some bold predictions about\nthe <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prnewswire.com\/news-releases\/new-freight-forecast-projects-continued-growth-for-trucking-300708207.html\">future\nof freight<\/a>. This year\u2019s edition of the report suggests that freight volumes\nwill increase over the next decade by 35.6%. They expect total tonnage to hit\n21.7 billion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The ATA\u2019s annual Freight Forecast looks at how the freight\neconomy is growing, evolving, and adapting to economic conditions over time,\nwhether at home or abroad. Considering how important the movement of goods is,\nfreight demand represents a reflection of the overall strength of the economy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to the report, over the five-year period from 2019\n\u2013 2024, truck volumes are expected to rise by approximately 2.3% per year. From\n2025 \u2013 2029, growth is expected to over around the 2% range year-over-year.\nStill, the total tonnage delivered by truck is expected to decrease from just\nover 70% in 2019 to just under 66% in 2029, with the main reason being expected\ndemand changes for commodities moved by pipeline. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The projected increase in freight volumes demand does not\nchange the overall outlook for the market. Even more, planned infrastructure\nimprovements, workforce development changes, regulatory shifts, and other factors\ncould create a different environment for the freight sector over the next\ndecade and could invalidate all the current projections. The problem is, there\nis some confusion in the data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Inconsistencies in\nEconomic Indicators<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking at the first half of 2019, there was some\ninconsistency in overall economic indicators. Economic data has varied widely\nfrom month-to-month. So, what gives? According to economists, the confusing\npicture points to a volatile situation. Or, it could simply be a higher level of\nseasonal adjustment <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Take retail sales as one example, which dropped unexpectedly\nin December by 1.2%. Yet, in January, retail sales took an unexpected jump,\nexpanding by 1.3%. February showed another drop. Job growth in February was\nalso quite anemic, yet in March it took a huge jump, adding 200,000 jobs. Is\nthere a problem with the economic data or is there some other inconsistency at\nplay?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many economists and industry watchers recommend using non-seasonally-adjusted data to reveal a clearer picture. Unfortunately, most data reported is seasonally adjusted, which means it is based on someone\u2019s estimate of a 10-year seasonal trend. Rampant industry disruption has also created unknowns in the overall economy and transportation sector. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">                                                      <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Take the rapid growth of <a href=\"https:\/\/quicktransportsolutions.com\/blog\/how-e-commerce-is-reshaping-the-warehousing-and-transportation-sector-part-i\/\">Amazon\nPrime, e-commerce, and home delivery trends<\/a> as one example. Consumer buying\nhabits are undergoing a massive shift, and labor employment across multiple\nindustries are facing higher levels of automation. Using 10-year seasonally\nadjusted averages to make economic predictions does not reflect the changing\nrealities of the past 3 \u2013 5 years. As trends have changed, so has the economy,\nbut much of the current data does not reflect that change. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The same should be applied to truck order data. While the\nheadline may scream that orders are down and the industry is in for a shock,\nconsider that this is often a result of someone\u2019s seasonally adjusted number.\nWith truck OEMs sold out through 2019, there is no reason to be surprised if\nthe data shows a weaker outlook than the normal seasonal trend. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>According to transportation research organization ACT Research, there may be an economic downturn during 2020. Still, many pundits were claiming there would be a downturn in 2019, and that is now looking increasingly less likely. While the trucking industry has had a fantastic run over the past 10 years, could I be that both he &#8230; <a title=\"Mixed Signals Create a Murky Picture for the Economy and Transportation Sector\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/quicktransportsolutions.com\/blog\/mixed-signals-create-a-murky-picture-for-the-economy-and-transportation-sector\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Mixed Signals Create a Murky Picture for the Economy and Transportation Sector\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2072,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2118","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trucking"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mixed Signals Create a Murky Picture for the Economy and Transportation Sector - Quick Transport Solutions Trucking Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/quicktransportsolutions.com\/blog\/mixed-signals-create-a-murky-picture-for-the-economy-and-transportation-sector\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mixed Signals Create a Murky Picture for the Economy and Transportation Sector - Quick Transport Solutions Trucking Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"According to transportation research organization ACT Research, there may be an economic downturn during 2020. 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Still, many pundits were claiming there would be a downturn in 2019, and that is now looking increasingly less likely. While the trucking industry has had a fantastic run over the past 10 years, could I be that both he ... 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