{"id":2301,"date":"2020-05-03T17:41:33","date_gmt":"2020-05-03T17:41:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/quicktransportsolutions.com\/blog\/?p=2301"},"modified":"2020-05-03T17:41:36","modified_gmt":"2020-05-03T17:41:36","slug":"how-an-oil-war-could-impact-the-trucking-industry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/quicktransportsolutions.com\/blog\/how-an-oil-war-could-impact-the-trucking-industry\/","title":{"rendered":"How an Oil War Could Impact the Trucking Industry"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you haven\u2019t heard by now, you likely will: There is a global oil war currently under way. So, what happened? Well, without getting too into the geopolitical weeds, Russia recently refused to cut back oil production to wound the U.S. shale industry. It is widely known that U.S. shale producers require an oil price of around $40 per barrel to remain competitive. As of May 3rd 2020, price for a barrel of Brent crude oil sits at around <a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/\">$19 per barrel<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">                                                                           <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In response, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting\nCountries (OPEC) asked Russia to decrease production to keep prices high. When\nRussia politely refused, Saudi Arabia responded by increasing their own\nproduction, thus flooding the market with oil. The timing of this move\nrepresents a risk for the Saudi Arabian economy. With a budget surplus and some\nof the largest stockpiles of foreign reserves in the world, Russia is\nwell-placed to ride out the storm. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now the question is: How will these oil price wars affect\nthe trucking industry? Furthermore, with the stock market tanking and a\ndangerous new virus on the loose, we are in perilous times not just for the\ntrucking industry, but for the world. That being said, trucking and\ntransportation provides economic lifeblood to our economy. Their health, and\nthe health of truck drivers around the country, is of paramount importance. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The trucking sector is primarily driven by economic factors,\nwhether macro or micro. Currently, the oil price war represents one of the\nlargest macroeconomic factors driving trucking industry outcomes. But let\u2019s dig\na little deeper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Tension Between Countries<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fact is this: There has always been tension between\noil-producing countries and states. Although OPEC often puts out a united\nfront, there isn\u2019t always 100% agreement between member states. And as OPEC\u2019s\nde facto leader, Saudi Arabia holds a lot of sway. And yet OPEC is not the only\ngame in town. This is where Russia, the United States, and other players come\nin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, under their brash new ruler, Saudi Arabia is not\nholding back. Known as MBS, Mohammed Bin Salman has accused Russia of cheating\non oil production agreements. The Saudi Arabian government has also reported\ngiving Russia multiple chances to close the gap and begin properly pricing\ntheir oil exports. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Other areas of the world fall under similar geopolitical\nuncertainty. You have countries like Venezuela, crippled by sanctions and full\nof unrest, a place where the elites survive off oil money. Then, just next\ndoor, tiny Guyana has made big oil discoveries off its coast, prompting some to\nwonder how these discoveries will impact the broader market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet, the tension between the big players only gets higher.\nAlthough it might be only a marriage of convenience, with Russia and OPEC\nflooding the market with cheap oil, American producers could be in for a tough\ntime. And it isn\u2019t just U.S. oil producers that need to worry. There is\ndefinitely a knock-on effect across all industries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And since Russia is intent on harming the U.S. shale\nindustry, this could be considered a roundabout economic attack on the United\nStates. The U.S. energy sector has been a major bright spot in the U.S.\neconomy. Yet, from the trade war to the oil war, this resilient industry is\nbeginning to show some cracks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Games We Play<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The recent geopolitical moves between Russia and OPEC aside,\nthere is a lot more to think about. These are serious times, from the novel\nCoronavirus to escalating wars in the middle east. And any one of these myriad\ncrises could impact the trucking and transportation sectors. But how?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&nbsp;The main way these\nchanges impact the industry is through a drop in fuel prices. And while it is\neasy to assume that lower prices at the pump is good for the trucking industry,\nthat isn\u2019t always the case. Situations like these create capacity problems. As\ncommerce dries up, opportunities for trucking companies and individual truck operators\nwill dry up as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even more, major market issues effect trucking in other ways.\nTake the big market crash on March 9 as one example. As Coronavirus fears\nspread, a trade-triggered circuit breaker shut down trading to give people a\nchance to get their breath and think things through. In all, the market dropped\nby over 1,700 points. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This has a direct impact on the transportation sector because people are buying less goods. Still, trucking companies are glad to pay far less for diesel fuel. And already in 2020, we have seen diesel drop by a whopping 22 cents per gallon, even after hitting a six-month high at the a of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">                                                                             <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As with any high-stakes game, whether geopolitical or not,\nthere are bound to be surprises and unexpected twists \u2013 and this oil war is does\nnot disappoint in that regard.&nbsp; In this\ncase, Saudi Arabia\u2019s response seems to have taken the Russians by surprise.\nRussia was not expecting MBS to counter them with an even lower oil price. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This puts Russia in quandary. Although Russia has a very\nstrong balance sheet with a mass of foreign reserves, a prolonged subdued oil\nprice could quickly eat into the rainy-day funds. It is very likely that Russia\nor Saudi Arabia will initiate a face-to-face meeting to work out a resolution\nto the impasse. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The OPEC goal was to cut overall oil production by 20%.\nWhile it is still unknown as to whether Russia will accept a 20% reduction but\nexpect to see some movement on it before springtime. But now the question is, how\nmight the spat between Russia and OPEC impact the trucking and transportation\nsectors?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>How Trucking is Impacted<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some might say the trucking industry is not directly\nimpacted by the price of oil beyond fuel, yet that is not exactly true. How?\nBecause rapidly falling fuel prices boost a fleet\u2019s cash flow temporarily\nbecause fuel surcharge payments based on earlier higher prices are coming in as\ncarriers are paying lower fuel prices. While this situation offers temporary\nrelief, there is always a risk the dynamic will change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is also important to not look at falling fuel prices as a\nbig boon to the industry that will help counteract other problems. There were many\nsigns that other negative economic factors were already percolating well before\nthe oil price war. Not only was the global economy showing signs of cooling\noff, but then the Coronavirus appeared.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">What will this look like in motor carrier real life? You\ncould find a situation where fleets are paying historically low prices at the\npump yet have no cargo to haul! Paying low prices doesn\u2019t mean much if you\naren\u2019t making much money to begin with. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also consider the truck drivers that support the energy sector\nand oil industry in the United States. If the oil industry takes a big hit\nbecause of the actions of other countries, all the truck drivers who support\nthat industry will be looking at either a loss of hours, income, or even their\njobs. Truck fleets that support the energy sector will be looking at some major\nproblems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Remember back in 2018 when the trucking industry experienced\nthat big surge? That was mainly because of flatbed activity in the oil markets.\nTrucks need to haul equipment for both exploration and exploitation of\nresources. The need for specialized flatbed carriers was especially acute in\nthe Permian Basin, home to millions of barrels of oil. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Another important factor is truck sales. Lower oil prices could negatively impact North American truck sales, particularly in the Class 8 market. Why? Because one of the main selling points for today\u2019s advanced Class 8 models are the much higher levels of fuel efficiency these vehicles get, now at 8 \u2013 12 miles per gallon. In a lower oil price environment, many fleets may defer new purchases and simply continue using old equipment. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">                                                                             <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The biggest knock-on effect for the transportation sector\nwill be any GDP or supply chain shrinkage. And this is about more than just the\nprice of oil. Whether it be the Coronavirus, oil price war, or some other major\nglobal challenge, consumer sentiment will likely drop, purchases will decrease,\nand less overall goods will be shipped. Let\u2019s just hope the worst-case\nscenarios don\u2019t materialize and we are all back up and humming again by the\nsummertime. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If you haven\u2019t heard by now, you likely will: There is a global oil war currently under way. So, what happened? Well, without getting too into the geopolitical weeds, Russia recently refused to cut back oil production to wound the U.S. shale industry. It is widely known that U.S. shale producers require an oil price &#8230; <a title=\"How an Oil War Could Impact the Trucking Industry\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/quicktransportsolutions.com\/blog\/how-an-oil-war-could-impact-the-trucking-industry\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about How an Oil War Could Impact the Trucking Industry\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2304,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-trucking"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How an Oil War Could Impact the Trucking Industry - Quick Transport Solutions Trucking Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/quicktransportsolutions.com\/blog\/how-an-oil-war-could-impact-the-trucking-industry\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How an Oil War Could Impact the Trucking Industry - Quick Transport Solutions Trucking Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"If you haven\u2019t heard by now, you likely will: There is a global oil war currently under way. 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So, what happened? Well, without getting too into the geopolitical weeds, Russia recently refused to cut back oil production to wound the U.S. shale industry. It is widely known that U.S. shale producers require an oil price ... 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