The electric vehicle revolution is now underway. For many OEMs, whether they are in the light- or heavy-duty business, electricity-driven powertrains are going to be the way of the future. Yet, questions remain about how electric vehicles will get the power they need. Even more, is their energy density enough to handle the job the way trucking companies need it handled?
With the electric vehicle revolution now underway, many openly speculate how difficult the transition away from gasoline combustion will be, especially for commercial operators. Trucking companies are used to doing things a certain way and there is a lot of uncertainty around full electrification. From making the transition to figuring out effective charging infrastructure, there is a lot to consider.
Let’s start with something simple: watt-hours per kilogram. This is an accurate way to determine the amount of energy produced by a particular propulsion system. According to latest estimates, diesel fuel contains around 12,700 watt-hours per kilogram. Lithium-ion batteries, which form the core underpinnings of electric vehicles, contain only 160 watt-hours per kilogram. Therefore, you need a much larger and heavier battery capacity for electric vehicles.
The fact is this: For big rigs to move completely away from diesel, there will have to be a greater imperative than reducing greenhouse gases. There really is no way the industry can make a quick transition into renewables. It is simply a power density problem; a matter of physics that is not constrained by human needs or wants.
Even more, many renewable energy installations are facing local opposition. Some are making the case that solar and wind is not the best choice for everyone. Still, it appears that the future is headed in a renewable direction. Can we reach a paradigm where electric cars are charged via renewable means on a large-scale basis?
Details in the Numbers
Weight matters in trucks, and when you are moving freight from one state to another, energy density is incredibly important. Let’s go back to the energy density of diesel fuel. To match it, trucks need to have a lot of storage space for the batteries. But there is also more than just the battery. You have a full cab to consider, especially for long haulers.
Look to California in these arguments. California, as we have reported on before, has been making a big push to electrify both commercial and passenger vehicle transportation. Governor Gavin Newsom recently unveiled an executive order requiring sales of all new passenger vehicles to be zero-emission by 2035. And though he gave big rigs until 2045, the clock is still ticking.
As a result, the state’s electric companies have been developing and deploying electric vehicle charging stations and infrastructure. They have also been developing financial and technical mechanisms to spur commercial growth in EV charging infrastructure. This is aimed at public utilities, truckers, and passenger car drivers.
In partnership with public utilities, the state has launched what is dubbed the Charge Ready Transport program, which aims to develop the infrastructure to support the electrification and usage of up to 8,500 medium- to heavy-duty trucks. This program is actually the largest of its kind anywhere in the country. If California is going to force trucking companies to go down this road, the least they can do is help develop the infrastructure to support it.
Southern California Edison has gotten in on the game by pledging to deliver 80% carbon-free power to customers by 2030 and 100% carbon-free by 2045. With both the state government and major public utilities getting in on the game, expect to see electrification staying a dominating topic throughout next year.
Cities Must Get Involved
State and local governments simply must get in on the game to make electrification feasible. They must encourage Level 2 charging infrastructure by incentivizing charging programs at companies that need them. They must work on streamlining permitting processes and develop comprehensive solutions for multi-unit dwellings and garage-free neighborhoods. All this can be accomplished through comprehensive education and outreach campaigns.
States can also work to improve electric charging infrastructure and support through building codes and new construction standards. As long as there are public-private partnerships to facilitate ownership over the infrastructure being built, then regulatory encouragement and compliance should not be a problem.
Fortunately, the U.S. Department of Energy provides a free tool called the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projection Tool – or EVI-Pro – to better understand the number of chargers required to support a plan around EV adoption. The problem is getting cities and other municipalities to use the tool and develop a plan.
The fact is, states must encourage cities, counties, state agencies, transportation agencies, and public institutions to take advantage of lower-priced charging stations. Many of these stations can be found through the Climate Mayors Electric Vehicle Purchasing Collaborative. It may be a mouthful, but this collaborative is easily sourced and can help fleets figure out how to properly adopt electrification.
Still, there is one problem that may be the white elephant in the room, and that is the grid itself. When it comes to vehicle electrification, what about the infrastructure necessary to support it? Will the load increase overwhelm the grid?
Power Origination and Distribution
Plenty have expressed concerns that a large increase in the number of electric vehicles will add a major load increase to the California grid. If that is the case, how will the rest of the nation fare? Consider that California experienced major rolling blackouts earlier this year. But there were other times in which blackouts came because of new technologies, such as in the 40s and 70s when kitchen appliances and AC units became the norm.
In reality, there really is no reason why California’s electric grid should not be able to handle the load. It is actually designed to function in peak demand situations. Fortunately, peak demand only happens a few times a year. Electric vehicles really represent one of the most flexible load charging problems. You will have more problems from other mechanisms.
The good news is that most electric vehicles will be charged when the demand is low, whether this be late at night or early in the morning. Cities, OEMs, and other interested parties need to come together to create a smart charging strategy that works for everyone, whether residential or commercial users. Utilities must also learn to optimize the peaks and valleys of grid loads.
Fortunately, electric utilities both in California and across the country have been building specified distribution grids designed to accommodate new technologies. This has been ongoing work over the past five-to ten-year period. This ensures the grid is ready to meet the demands of users, especially those using electric vehicles.
Many utilities are already forecasting over a massive increase in energy use from electric vehicles. Over a five- to 10-year period, public utilities expect EV use and charging requirements on the grid to double. As a result, they are planning to work closely with states, municipalities, and customers on ensuring transportation electrification happens without a hitch.
The Move to Electric
The question now is how long before the trucking industry adapts and moves in this direction. The number of medium- and heavy-duty electric trucks being developed and produced continues to rise, so eventually fleets will need to assess whether using these vehicles is right for them. If they want to meet regulations and save fuel, they will likely need to make the switch.
Still, it is a difficult question to answer with a lot of certainty. It will depend on what kinds of policies and incentives are put into place and how the technologies will develop over time. The trucking industry is far from monolithic, so it is likely that we will see trucking companies electrify their fleets in waves. And considering we are already seeing yard tractor and transit bus electrification; it should not be long for motor carriers to get on the bandwagon.
Yet costs will continue to be a problem. Until costs come down, trucking companies should only install the infrastructure they need and grow according to their market. Don’t adopt new technologies simply for the sake of doing so. Make sure there is a real imperative from a marketplace or financial perspective. The last thing you want to do is sink a ton of money into technologies that your fleet is not yet ready to adopt in large-scale fashion.
But with electrification on the horizon for many, it will be critical that you conduct your due diligence before the moment arrives. That way you can be prepared to save money, save fuel, and be at the cutting edge of new developments in the trucking sector.